Evolution of the space industry

A second “space race” has started and the private sector will be a protagonist. The numbers of the space industry are significant: it accounts globally for $360 billion in 2019;[1] in May 2021, 5,582 space-focused companies operated in the US and more than 10,000 companies operated globally, for a combined value of over $4 trillion.[2] These numbers are only going to increase; with the lowering cost of space activities[3] and with the many opportunities offered by “new space”[4] the numbers of the industry will likely surge.[5] If communications and remote sensing are still the largest[6]and most lucrative segment of the space industry,[7] other segments are on the rise. For example, even if space resource activities[8] have encountered delays[9] and the optimistic perspective of a rapid and smooth start of the space mining industry that existed in the mid 2010s[10] might not exist anymore, still space mining retains its appeal[11] and space mining will happen:[12] it is not a question of “if” but of “when.”[13] Space tourism[14] is also likely to become incredibly profitable. The satellite industry itself is rapidly changing because of the introduction of nano/microsatellites; for example, it has been estimated that by 2026, 3600 smallsats will be launched for a total market value of approximately $22 billion.[15]

The private sector, supported by government programs, will be heavily involved in the new “Moon race”. The Artemis Program – announced in 2020is the US and partners’ program of exploration and utilization of the possibilities offered by the Moon; Artemis is expected to bring astronauts back to the Moon probably in 2024 or shortly thereafter[16]and to establish a permanent base.[17] The private sector will be a fundamental component: private companies manufactured the rocket used for the Artemis missions,[18] while a group formed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (“NASA”), US and European companies cooperated in the designing and construction of the crewed capsule Orion[19] and will work together in the construction of the orbiting station Gateway.[20] Artemis—which has many non US companies as partners—is expected[21] to be a booster for the space private sector of many countries (not only the US one).[22] To coordinate the Artemis Program, NASA entered into bilateral arrangements with other space agencies (Artemis Accords).[23]

The 2007 China Chang’e Program,[24] which has already achieved significant success,[25] also envisions landingtaikonauts[26] on the Moon by 2030[27] and orbiting a station around the Moon.[28] The program is significantly stimulating the Chinese space industry,[29] which is already quite developed[30] with companies like Galactic Energy (a rocket developer),[31] LinkSpace (a launch company),[32] and Landspace, also a private launch provider.[33]

Commercial entities, not governments, are expected to perform lunar mining. For example, ispace, inc. (ispace-inc.com)[34] plans to robotically mine lunar resources.[35] An Australian startup, Space Industries Pty. Ltd., plans to mine water and helium-3 from the Moon.[36] TransAstra, a US based-company, plans initially to mine water to use as propellant and then to mine other materials.[37] Companies like Space X,[38] Blue Origin,[39] and RocketLab[40] are planning launches and resource activities[41] in lunar and cislunar space; supporting services are also being created.[42]

Of course, the involvement of private sector in space activities is not new.[43] However, in this new phase, the involvement of the private sector will be different, both in quantity and quality.[44] While the revenue prospects are expected to be huge, so is the need for financing.

This change in the role of the private sector should affect the way in which the companies operating in the space sector obtain financing. Traditionally, the space industry consisted of big companies with “relatively easy access to capital due to their financial stability and creditworthiness.”[45] However, with the increase of the number of space companies, this is no longer the case.

For more information Francesca Giannoni-Crystal.

[1] Hamza Hameed, Asset-based Financing in the Space Industry, Harmonised system of secured transactions law for space assets: The Space Protocol of the Cape Town Convention, UN Conference/ APSCO Conference on Space Law and Policy (Istanbul) September 2019, available at https://www.unoosa.org/documents/pdf/spacelaw/activities/2019/Hamza_Hameed_-_UN_Turkey_APSCO_-_Space_Protocol_Presentation.pdf. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. (“Hameed’s Asset-based Financing in the Space Industry”).

[2] John Koetsier, Space Inc: 10,000 Companies, $4T Value … and 52% American, available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2021/05/22/space-inc-10000-companies-4t-value–and-52-american/?sh=755cc6df55ac. Last visited Apr 2.8, 2023. (“Koetsier, Space Inc: 10,000 Companies”).

[3] Launch technology continues to improve, bringing orbital delivery costs down to an estimated $500/kilogram in SpaceX’s Starship, as opposed to $20,000/kilogram on NASA’s Space Shuttle. Id.

[4] “New Space” usually include activities like: Rendezvous and proximity operations, including refueling (see, e.g., Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Rendezvous and proximity operations, (2020). Last visited May 19, 2023.); Space resource utilization (see, e.g. Gerald B. Sanders, SPACE RESOURCE UTILIZATION: TECHNOLOGIES AND POTENTIAL SYNERGISM WITH TERRESTRIAL MINING, available at https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20150003499/downloads/20150003499.pdf Last visited May 19, 2023); Space tourism (see, e.g. Malgorzata Polkowska, Space Tourism Challenges, 45 REV. EUR. & COMP. L. 153 (2021).)

[5] Michael Sheetz, The space industry is on its way to reach $1 trillion in revenue by 2040, Citi says, available at https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/21/space-industry-is-on-its-way-to-1-trillion-in-revenue-by-2040-citi.html. Last visited April 28, 2023.

[6] Records indicate that in March 2022, 8261 satellites were orbiting Earth and over 100 objects were orbiting other bodies (including the Moon and Mars). Only circa the half were operative. Andy, Satellites Orbiting the Earth in 2022, https://www.pixalytics.com/satellites-in-2022/. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[7] Communication is the most lucrative industry so far:

[W]hile in the past that meant national or broadcast communications, SpaceX’s Starlink now has over-500,000 orders. At $100/month, that would provide annual revenue of $600 million for Elon Musk’s space company. Given the number of people who struggle with poor terrestrial internet speeds in rural areas, you’d have to think that SpaceX’s addressable market is easily 10 times that number.” Koetsier, Space Inc: 10,000 Companies.

[8] Mining the celestial bodies might be a quite lucrative perspective. For example, some parts of the Moon (Sea of ​​Tranquility and Ocean of Storms) contain high concentration of helium-3. In fact, because of the absence of a magnetic field or a protective atmosphere, the bombardment of solar wind deposits helium-3 on the lunar surface. At current price, there is an estimated $ 1.5 quadrillion of helium-3 on the Moon. Colin Stuart, A race is afoot to make billions from the Moon’s resources. Here’s the story so far, available at https://www.sciencefocus.com/space/new-space-race-moon/. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[9] Started in 2012 with the plan of mining space resources, Planetary Resources – after failing – to raise the money it was counting on” – was acquired in 2018 “by ConsenSys, a blockchain software company.” Deep Space Industries (DSI) – whose plan was to “extract ice from asteroids near Earth and selling it in space as a propellant for other missions” – was acquired “by an aeronautics company named Bradford Space.” The consensus is that these acquisitions are taking the companies out from the race of space. Some say that there would be “no customer base for asteroid mining in the next 12 to 15 years.” Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, How the asteroid-mining bubble burst, A short history of the space industry’s failed (for now) gold rush, available at https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/26/134510/asteroid-mining-bubble-burst-history/. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[10] There was an expectation that the industry could reach 2.84 billion by 2025. Space mining market, Space mine market by Phase (Spacecraft, Design, Launch and Operation) Type of asteroid (c-type, M-type, S-type), Application (Construction, fuel and others), Asteroid distance, Commodity Resources and Geography Global forecast to 2025, available at https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/space-mining-market-129545886.html. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[11] Alan Boyle, One year after Planetary Resources faded into history, space mining retains its appeal, available at https://www.geekwire.com/2019/one-year-planetary-resources-faded-history-space-mining-retains-appeal/. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023 (making the point that Planetary Resources has re-directed the focus of its business because space mining “is [not] fundable yet.”)

[12] Alex Gilbert, Mining in Space Is Coming, available at

https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/mining-in-space-is-coming (making the point that some “baby steps toward the goal have already been taken,” with NASA awarding “contracts to four companies to extract small amounts of lunar regolith by 2024”). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[13] Id. Space mining will have a “geopolitical” connotation in the near future, with the “United States …rapidly emerging as a front-runner” but with competition also from “Luxembourg and the United Arab Emirates” and from “Russia, Japan, India and the European Space Agency all harbor[ing] space-mining ambitions of their own.”

[14] Dylan Taylor, The future of space tourism: op-ed, available https://www.space.com/future-of-space-tourism-op-ed. (stating that space tourism is a “growing market expected to be worth at least $3 billion by 2030” which includes “suborbital tourism” and “orbital vacations”). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[15] Ram S. Jakhu et al., Critical issues related to registration of space objects and transparency of space activities, Acta Astronautica 143 (2018) 406, 413. (“Jakhu’s Critical issues related to registration”).

[16] Mark J. Sundahl, Transcript: Returning to the Moon: Legal Challenges as Humanity Begins to Settle the Solar System: Full Transcript, 9 Global Bus. L. Rev. 1, 7 (“Sundahl, Returning to the Moon”).

[17] Id. at 9 (explaining that the Artemis partners envision to build an international space station orbiting the Moon, which will be called the Lunar Gateway.)

[18] The Space Launch System (“SLS”) is the product of a cooperative endeavor between Boeing and Northrop Grumman. Rocket to the Moon, Mars and Beyond, available at https://www.boeing.com/space/space-launch-system/index.page. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[19] Sundahl, Returning to the Moon at 8. The SLC will transport an innovative crewed capsule Orion (officially “Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle” or “Orion MPCV”), which has the peculiarity of being partially reusable. Like the SLS, Orion is a cooperation between NASA and the private sector; in particular, an international cooperation, with the US company Lockheed Martin and the European company Airbus.

[20] The Gateway will have components from U.S. companies, as well as international partners. It will provide access to more of the lunar surface than ever before with living quarters for astronauts, a lab for science and research, ports for visiting spacecraft, and more. The Human Landing System will carry astronauts to the lunar surface and launch them back to lunar orbit when their expedition is complete. … NASA is working with three American companies – Blue Origin, Dynetics, and SpaceX – to begin development of their industry-led innovative designs for human landing systems. Artemis Partners, https://www.nasa.gov/content/artemis-partners. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[21] For a list of the Artemis partners see, Artemis Partners, https://www.nasa.gov/content/artemis-partners. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. Many are non-US companies, also from countries that are not traditional US space partners (e.g, Israeli company, providing technology for a radiation experiment, called the Matroshka AstroRad Radiation Experiment), available at https://www.jpost.com/science/article-715750. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[22] Christian Zur, Artemis will accelerate the commercial space sector, available at https://spacenews.com/op-ed-artemis-will-accelerate-the-commercial-space-sector/ (contending that “the success of Artemis in opening the lunar surface – and later Mars – to human presence will serve as a catalytic force for economic enterprise to follow.”) Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[23] The Artemis Accords, Principles For Cooperation in the Civil Exploration and Use of the Moon, Mars, Comets, and Asteroids for Peaceful Purposes, available at https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis-accords/img/Artemis-Accords-signed-13Oct2020.pdf. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[24] Adam Mann, China’s Chang’e Program: Missions to the Moon, Feb. 1, 2019, available at https://www.space.com/43199-chang-e-program.html. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.; ESA Tracks Chang’e-5 Moon Mission: The Eur. Space Agency (Nov. 18, 2020), available at https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Images/2020/11/ESA_tracks_Chang_e-5_Moon_mission. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[25] This includes the first landing (Chang’e 4) on the far side of the Moon, near the Moon’s South Pole, which is an area quite rich in resources like water and helium-3. Bryant A. Mishima-Baker, Moon Wars: Legal in Space and Moon Law, 2021 The Reporter 1* available at https://www.afjag.af.mil/Portals/77/documents/Reporter/20210304%20Mishima%20Baker.pdf?ver=SNGv8IQGp4wlKwQYTAz7Bg%3D%3D. *2. (“Moon Wars”). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

Mike Wall, China’s Chang’e 5 Capsule Lands on Earth with the 1st New Moon Samples in 44 years, available at https://www.space.com/china-chang-e-5-moon-samples-capsule-landing (stating that the program has already successfully accomplished the collection of Moon samples). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

China Plans to Bring Back the First Moon Rocks for 40 Years, The Economist (Nov. 21, 2020), https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2020/11/21/china-plans-to-bring-back-the-first-moon-rocks-for-40-years. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

Andrew Jones, Chang’e-5 orbiter reaches Lagrange point on extended mission, available at https://spacenews.com/change-5-orbiter-reaches-lagrange-point-on-extended-mission/ (arguing that China’s space program aims at “scientific value” but also at the “prestige [of a] long-term presence” and at resources). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[26] Taikong is the “name used in the west for a Chinese astronaut. It comes from the Chinese word ‘taikong’ meaning space or cosmos.” However, the “official Chinese name is yuhangyuan …” Oxford Reference, Overview: Taikonaut, available at https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803101916587. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. In particular, 宇航员 (yǔ háng yuan) where “yǔ” is universe, “hang” is a ship and “yuan” is member so that yǔhángyuan is a member of a space ship.

[27] “Chinese boots on the moon will be “entirely possible” by 2030 according to senior Chinese lunar program designer and engineer Ye Peijian.” Andrew Jones, Chinese crewed moon landing possible by 2030, says senior space figure, available at https://spacenews.com/chinese-crewed-moon-landing-possible-by-2030-says-senior-space-figure/. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. See also, China releases white paper on space program, available at Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

Andrew Jones, China aims for space-based solar power test in LEO in 2028, GEO in 2030, available at https://spacenews.com/china-aims-for-space-based-solar-power-test-in-leo-in-2028-geo-in-2030/ (explaining how space-based solar panels are an “integral part of the China space program.”) Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[28] Andrew Jones, China lays out big plans for its new Tiangong space station, available at https://www.space.com/china-big-plans-tiangong-space-station. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[29] Michelle L. D. Hanlon, The Middle Kingdom’s Shrewd Strategy to Become the Centre of the Universe, 41 Annals Air & Space L. 287 (2016), 296.

[30] Zhao Chenchen, China’s private space companies: A race for the universe, available at https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-12-24/China-s-private-space-companies-A-race-for-the-universe-16fCBj4ss9y/index.html (stating that we are talking of a “billion-dollar market favored by national policies.”) (“China’s private space companies”). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. Andrew Jones, China’s Landspace appears to be preparing to launch its new methane-fueled rocket available at https://spacenews.com/chinas-landspace-appears-to-be-preparing-to-launch-its-new-methane-fueled-rocket/. (“China’s Landscape”). Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. Some would argue that Chinese private companies, especially in certain sectors, are not really private in China. To be sure, China has a different concept of private sector: the latter is required to be “united around the [Chinese Communist] party.” Stephen Olson, Are Private Chinese Companies Really Private? available at https://thediplomat.com/2020/09/are-private-chinese-companies-really-private/ Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[31] China’s private space companies.

[32] China’s private space companies.

[33] China’s Landscape.

[34] I-space inc. is “a global lunar exploration company with its headquarters in Japan and regional offices in the United States and Europe” (https://ispace-inc.com/news/?p=2370. Last visited on Oct. 23, 2022.

[35] Originally scheduled for mid-November 2022, the “launch attempt of its HAKUTO-R Mission 1 lunar lander has been postponed”. Ispace, ispace HAKUTO-R Mission 1 Launch Updated, available at https://ispace-inc.com/news-en/?p=4056. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023. The mission happened in April 2023 but was unsuccessful. “The HAKUTO-R Mission 1 Lunar Lander was scheduled to touchdown on the surface of the Moon at approximately 1:40 a.m. JST. As of 8:00 a.m. JST, April 26, 2023, the communication between the lander and the Mission Control Center was lost, although it was expected even after the touchdown, and it has been determined that Success 9 of the Mission Milestones is not achievable. … [I]t has been determined that there is a high probability that the lander eventually made a hard landing on the Moon’s surface.” Status Update on ispace HAKUTO-R Mission 1 Lunar Lander, https://ispace-inc.com/news-en/?p=4655. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[36] This is expected to be obtained through a lunar mining vehicle that will process and return helium-3 to Earth. The byproduct -water – could be used in situ on the Moon for fuel, among other uses. See also, NASA iTech: Meet the Innovators, available at https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/itech/2019_meet_the_innovators_SpaceIndustries/. Last visited April 13, 2023.

The Moon is the ideal location to start robotic mining.

The Moon only has a 2.7 second delay for communications, and may be easier to mine remotely. Near-Earth objects also have orbits similar to Earth, and occasionally pass by Earth at distances comparable to the Moon. They’re an ideal candidate to mine as they require little energy to reach and return from. Humans have big plans for mining in space.

[37] CNBC video documentary Magdalena Petrova, The first crop of space mining companies didn’t work out, but a new generation is trying again, available at https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/09/space-mining-business-still-highly-speculative.html?&qsearchterm=astroforge. Last visited May 16, 2023.

[38] https://www.spacex.com

[39] https://www.blueorigin.com/about-blue/

[40] https://www.rocketlabusa.com

[41] Jordan McDonald, NASA shoots for the moon as private companies reach for the stars, available at https://www.emergingtechbrew.com/stories/2022/08/24/nasa-shoots-for-the-moon-as-private-companies-reach-for-the-stars. Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[42] See e.g., Jeff Foust, Privateer unveils technology for improved tracking of space objects, available at https://spacenews.com/unveils-technology-for-improved-tracking-of-space-objects/#:~:text=Privateer%2C%20based%20in%20Maui%2C%20Hawaii,provided%20directly%20by%20satellite%20operators (discussing Privateer Space, https://mission.privateer.com, a company engaging in “tracking and characterizing objects in orbit and providing services, such as collision warnings.”) Last visited Apr. 28, 2023.

[43] Sundahl, Returning to the Moon (discussing how the “private sector has been in space for decades”, in fact, “since 1960s, as designers and manufacturers of rockets and shuttles, and as satellite operators” with the “private industry … contracted by NASA and other governmental agencies.” Id. *26.)

[44] Id. at *32-*33 (making the point that the relationship between NASA and the commercial sector is changing and that NASA wants to be the “enabler” of the private sector, “the customer to purchase services, to purchase the taxi service from SpaceX to deliver cargo and crew, to purchase other services that are offered by private industry rather than contracting with private industry to work on a NASA-owned and controlled projects.”)

[45] Hameed’s Asset-based Financing in the Space Industry at 5.