Besides the natural unknowns of outer space, man-made hazards could hinder financing in the near future, i.e., orbital debris, which is increasing exponentially.[1] “Orbital debris, sometimes referred to as ‘space junk,’ is defined as human-made, non-functional objects – including fragments and elements thereof – that exist in Earth orbits or are re-entering Earth’s atmosphere”.[2] Debris “can endanger operational spacecraft through risk of collision” since it travels at an average of “10/km per second” when in LEO, in a way that is “uncontrolled” and “difficult to predict”.[3] Insurance for Space Companies is becoming difficult to obtain because of increasing debris. While up to now, only very few space objects have suffered damage or total distraction through a collision with debris, and so the problem is “theoretical” for now, [4] it is on the way to becoming more serious.
True, “orbital debris risk has never been factored into most space investment decisions, as investors have seen the risk as minimal,” but the situation could rapidly change:[5] “In the future, orbital debris risk will be very different as operators launch constellations of 1,000-plus satellites in rapid sequence.”[6]
Could the problem be solved by registration? Unlikely. In fact, there is no (clear) duty to register debris. Article II of the Registration Convention requires the registration of a “space object”, which is not fully defined in Article I of the Registration Convention.[7] As a consequence “some States (such as the US and France) have interpreted ‘space object’ to include non-functional objects, such as discarded rocket stages and debris, while others (e.g., Russia) consider only payloads.”[8] To be sure, the registration of debris is not practical and even the scholars who recommend more transparency in registration do not argue that debris should be registered.[9]
Tracking is a part of the solution. More and more debris are being tracked (see e.g., the United States[10] and the European Union[11]); but tracking is only the first step. The debris problem must be mitigated and, as for the debris already in orbit, remediated.[12]
Several guidelines and non-binding documents were issued at the international level; in primis, the UN Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines:[13] NASA[14] and European space agencies have also developed standards.[15] At least one domestic authority requires disclosure concerning debris and a postmission disposal plan.[16]
The space industry should comply with these guidelines because it is in its best interest: the possibility of obtaining financing (and/or insurance) might depend on a solution to the debris problem. The problem of debris intersects with another risk for financers: ASATs. In fact, debris result from accidental collisions or breaking up of space objects but can also result from a deliberate destruction. For now, we have had cases of states targeting its “non-operational spacecraft in orbit as targets for the development of its anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons.”[17] The United States, China, Russia, and India “have destroyed their own satellites in ASAT tests.”[18] However, it might not be long before a country moves from ASAT experiments to a hostile ASAT. Dual use satellites are of course, the most at risk for ASATs.
For more information: Francesca Giannoni-Crystal
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[1] See e.g., Joseph N. Pelton, A Global Fund for Space Debris Remediation: A New Way Forward to Address the Mounting Space Debris Problem, 2012 ISU Symposium, available at https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284755312_Possible_institutional_and_financial_arrangements_for_active_removal_of_orbital_space_debris_40(discussing “the pros and cons of an ‘economic approach’ to solving the problem of space debris [by establishing] … a fund that creates financial incentives for a ‘clean launch’ and for removal of defunct space objects at the end of life.”) Last visited May 18, 2023.
[2] Orbital Debris Interagency Working Group Subcommittee on Space Weather, Security, and Hazards of the National Science and Technology Council, National Orbital Debris Implementation Plan, (July 2022) available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/07-2022-NATIONAL-ORBITAL-DEBRIS-IMPLEMENTATION-PLAN.pdf at 7. (“National Orbital Debris Implementation Plan”). Last visited on Oct. 24, 2022. Last visited May 18, 2023.
[3] Id.
[4] Noor Zainab Hussain & Carolyn Cohn, Insurers Pull Back as Risks of Satellite and Space Debris Collisions Surge, available at https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2021/09/01/629684.htm. (contending that, as of Sept 2021, “[o]nly 11 spacecraft have suffered a partial or total failure due to suspected debris strikes over the past decade.”) Last visited May 18, 2023.
[5] J. Armand Musey, Orbital debris and the threat to industry investment, available at https://spacenews.com/op-ed-orbital-debris-and-the-threat-to-industry-investment/. Last visited May 18, 2023.
[6] Id.
[7] Article I(b) “The term ‘space object’ includes component parts of a space object as well as its launch vehicle and parts thereof.”
[8] Jakhu’s Critical issues related to registration, 407. “The language also does not make clear whether the verb ‘launched’ includes additional objects created by separation or fragmentation at a later time. For the purpose of international transparency and security of space activities, it would seem that at least inert rocket stages should be registered so that they are not confused with dormant (and potentially hostile) payloads.” Id.
[9] Id. at 417.
[10] Jeff Foust, Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test, available at https://spacenews.com/russia-destroys-satellite-in-asat-test/. Last visited May 18, 2023. See also, US Mission UNVIE, 2022 COPUOS STSC – US and space debris available at https://vienna.usmission.gov/2022-copuos-stsc-space-debris/. Last visited May 18, 2023.
More than 27,000 pieces of orbital debris, or “space junk,” are tracked by the Department of Defense’s global Space Surveillance Network (SSN) sensors. Much more debris — too small to be tracked, but large enough to threaten human spaceflight and robotic missions — exists in the near-Earth space environment. Mark Garcia, Space Debris and Human Spacecraft, available at https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/news/orbital_debris.html. Last visited May 18, 2023..
[11] “Apart from the US, the European Space Agency also has, under its near-Earth object and space debris tracking activities, the Space Situational Awareness Program.” Id. at 414.
[12] See e.g., National Orbital Debris Implementation Plan, calling for (a)Debris Mitigation, (b)Tracking and Characterization of Debris, and (c)Remediation of Debris. Id. at 5.
[13] Resolution 62/217 of 22 December 2007, Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines of the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, available at https://www.unoosa.org/pdf/publications/st_space_49E.pdf. Last visited May 18, 2023.
[14] US Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices,
[15] Since the mid 1990s, space agencies in Europe have developed … guidelines as a European Code of Conduct for Space Debris Mitigation, which was signed by ASI, UKSA, CNES, DLR and ESA in 2006… ESA has developed its own Requirements on Space Debris Mitigation for Agency Projects. These instructions came into force on 1 April 2008. These have since been superseded by the 2011 ISO standard 24113 on debris mitigation requirements. This standard …[is] applicable to all ESA projects. The European Space Agency, Mitigating space debris generational available https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Space_Debris/Mitigating_space_debris_generation. Last visited May 18, 2023.
[16] To obtain a frequency license from the US Federal Communication Commission, the applicant must disclose information regarding debris mitigation. In particular, as part of the application, the applicant must disclose “A statement that the space station operator has assessed and limited. The number of debris released in a plane manner during normal operations…” and “A statement that the space station operator has assessed and limited the probability of accidental explosions during and after completion mission operation” 47 CFR § 25.114. The operator must also have a post mission disposal plan. The rule has now been modified to require a 5-year post mission-disposal.
[17] Jakhu’s Critical issues related to registration, at 414.
[18] Mark Smith, Anti-satellite weapons: History, types and purpose, available at https://www.space.com/anti-satellite-weapons-asats. Last visited May 18, 2023. For example, in 2021, Russia intentionally broke up one of its decommissioned satellites, Cosmos-1408, in an ASAT experiment. The test generated “over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris.” Jeff Foust, Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test, available at https://spacenews.com/russia-destroys-satellite-in-asat-test/. Last visited May 18, 2023.